Methods for crop production forecasts address two components – methods for measuring areas to be harvested and methods for estimating forecasted yields. The former is relatively straightforward, while the estimate of expected yield is more challenging to obtain. In addition, there is a wide variety of approaches and methods to estimate expected yield.
In the context of the Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics, a comprehensive review of the existing approaches has been undertaken. These range from direct estimates using objective yield procedures or interviews, to methods using econometric modelling, including agro-meteorological models using ground based and remotely sensed data.
The AMIS project, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), is building on synergies with the Global Strategy’s work by providing documentation and analysis of current national or international practices. It adds value by:
- Looking at methods using a combination of ground data and remotely sensed data;
- Looking at the required data infrastructure and the institutional set-up behind each method;
- Providing guidance on the various trade-offs between cost/capacity/quality, for each method.
Outputs of this work will improve data and information systems in interested countries – especially those benefiting from AMIS capacity building programmes.
Established upon request of the Agriculture Ministers of the G20, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) is an inter-Agency Platform to enhance food market transparency and encourage the coordination of policy action in response to market uncertainty. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) supports the 4th pillar of AMIS (Capacity Development) through a grant to FAO to finance the project “Strengthening Agricultural Market Information Systems (AMIS) globally and in selected countries (Bangladesh, India and Nigeria) using innovative methods and digital methodology”.